Graduate market: Breakfast News latest

Completing the programme's first full year, the sixth bimonthly TARGETjobs Breakfast News event was held on the morning of Wednesday 29^th April at the Cumberland Hotel's Rhodes W1 Brasserie.  Some 230 delegates from the world of graduate recruitment were present, welcomed by GTI's UK CEO Paul Sissons and sales director Simon Rogers.

As usual, Bryan Finn of Business Economics presented the opening session, translating key macroeconomic data into its practical impacts on the recruitment and, more specifically, graduate recruitment markets.  With so much media focus on the economy recently, it's hardly necessary to repeat all the gloomy statistics here, other than to note than a number of key indicators (such as property prices, consumer confidence etc) have started to show slight signs of recovery very recently.

In common with most other commentators, Bryan regarded the chancellor's own forecasts as "quite frankly, not believable," suggesting instead that UK GDP would contract by just over 4% this year but grow by around 0.5% in 2010.  He reminded the audience that whenever the growth rate falls below 2.4%, recruitment advertising is hit - and this year's horrendous performance could see it decline by as much as 50%.  However next year looks to be a lot less painful by way of contrast.

An innovation this time round was the launch of a new monthly ‘graduate employment index'.  This runs on a scale from +100 (where everything in the garden is rosy for the economy, the employers and the students) to -100 (when the opposite is true).  The opening index was set at -28.5, and it is hoped that this will start to show something of an improvement in the ensuing months.

Neil Harrison of TMP Worldwide then unveiled some recent research into the evolving career skills of undergraduates and recent graduates (i.e. first or second-jobbers).  It was something of a concern that as many as one in four finalists simply didn't know what they'd do if they failed to get a graduate job this summer.  Many others suggested they'd undertake voluntary work or further studies, although the research indicated that the latter option would prove much easier for students from private rather than state educational backgrounds.

Looking more closely at employability skills, it was noteworthy that students seemed to be preoccupied with keeping their heads down and avoiding risk - precisely the opposite of the enterprising, entrepreneurial skill sets that most employers claim to be seeking.

An overwhelming majority (80%+) of those already in the workplace said they felt more enthused and engaged if their employer was seen to be investing in their development, while 43% of recent graduates said they'd consider "jumping ship" if the economy picked up tomorrow (not that it's likely, of course).  However it's clear that investment in new skills can play a key role in graduates' career destinations.

Taking the AGCAS slot, Anne-Marie Martin - director of The Careers Group, University of London - provided a view from the campus on careers services' involvement in the skills agenda.  With the role of universities in skills training traditionally the subject of lively debate, she noted that the vocationally-led ex-polytechnics had been first to embrace employability skills within the curriculum, whereas the research-based institutions had generally been slower to adopt the idea.

AGCAS is increasingly involved in helping to influence government policy in these areas, while Regional Development Agencies are working with universities to increase work placements and internship opportunities.  It is also encouraging that all institutions now have some form of recognition (awards, certificates, credits etc) for the development of employability skills and other extra-curricular achievements.

Despite all this, Anne-Marie noted that it was still up to individual students to engage with the skills development on offer - and many of those who don't bother to take it up live to regret the fact later.

From the employer perspective, AGR chief executive Carl Gilleard said the market was still quite volatile.  The latest market ‘snapshot' (based on a record response from AGR members) showed that initial estimates for this year's graduate intake were still being revised downwards.  In broad terms, roughly a third of employers were now planning to take on slightly fewer graduates, and a similar proportion either a lot fewer or none at all.  Around one in five were still planning to take on the same amount, and around one in six more than originally envisaged.

It was notable that some 90% of employers now expect to meet their graduate recruitment targets for this year - the highest level in Carl's long experience.  That said, around a third are still accepting graduate applications, confounding the misconception that there are no graduate jobs out there this year.  For most employers, the biggest threat to their graduate recruitment plans is now seen as the economic climate, rather than the more traditional skills shortage.

Following the usual lively panel Q&A session, Simon Rogers closed the proceedings by reminding delegates of the fast approaching 2009 TARGETjobs National Graduate Recruitment Awards, to be hosted by Alan Carr at London's Grosvenor House on Thursday 21^st May.  He also announced the date for the next instalment of Breakfast News - Thursday 25^th June.